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Last Update 12:15 AM - 02/23/18

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Current Snow Level: 0.0 ft

Weather Synopsis:
..A cold airmass with low snow levels will hold over the region through the weekend and likely much of next week. Dry but chilly conditions are expected tonight. Another round of precipitation will spread into the area Friday afternoon and evening bringing snow followed by rain for the lowlands. Steady precipitation continues into Saturday morning, then tapers to showers in the afternoon. The next system arrives quickly on its heels, bringing heavy precipitation late Sat night through Sun. Snow levels will rise slightly over the weekend, but the Cascades, Cascade foothills, the Coast Range, and Willapa Hills will see significant snowfall this weekend. The cold and active pattern continues for the first half of next week.


Resort Conditions

Timberline
Website - SnowPhone - Weather Station

timberlineresort
Weather: Snowing
Temp: 19F - (4F @ Weather Station)
Wind: NW @ 1 mph - (-0 gusting to 0mph @ Weather Station)
Base: 111"in
New Snow 24hr: 4"in - (0in @ Weather Station)
New Snow 72hr: 26"in
Annual Snow: 413"in
Road Conditions: Plowed Roads - Winter driving conditions exist. Please drive carefully.
Notes: The sunshine has left and the snow has returned! Lifts are now closed for the day but are scheduled to operate tomorrow from 9am-9pm! Night skiing is scheduled to operate Friday and Saturday nights until March 10th, weather permitting. Unmarked hazards do exist, please obey all trail closures and respect the ski area boundary. Winter driving in effect. Please take some extra time when traveling. Stay tuned for updates. Sledding and tubing are not allowed at Timberline.

timberlinelodge jeffflood magicmile bruno

Timberline NOAA Forecast

Overnight NOAA DAY 0
Partly Cloudy
Partly cloudy, with a low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -9. North northwest wind around 6 mph.
Friday NOAA DAY 1
Snow Likely
Snow likely after 10am. Increasing clouds, with a high near 23. Wind chill values as low as -9. West wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Friday Night NOAA DAY 2
Snow and Windy
Snow. Temperature rising to around 23 by 2am. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a west wind 18 to 23 mph increasing to 27 to 32 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
Saturday NOAA DAY 3
Snow Showers and Windy
Snow showers. High near 21. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a west wind 30 to 33 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Saturday Night NOAA DAY 4
Snow Showers Likely and Breezy
Snow showers likely before 10pm, then snow likely after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 16. Breezy, with a west wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Sunday NOAA DAY 5
Snow and Windy
Snow. High near 24. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.

Meadows
Website - SnowPhone - Weather Station

meadowsresort
Weather: Snow
Temp: 4F - (4F @ Weather Station)
Wind: 4 mph - (8 gusting to 13mph @ Weather Station)
Base: 96in
Mid Base: 132in
New Snow 12hr: 3in
New Snow 24hr: 3in - (2in @ Weather Station)
New Snow 48hr: 15in
Annual Snow: 267in
Snow: Conditions:
Groom is mostly packed powder, with a few harder spots. Off piste is powder and skier-packed powder, including some developing moguls. Expect unmarked obstacles. Cover exposed skin, avoid tree wells, and wear a helmet!

Notes: N/A

Meadowsbase Meadowstop Meadowsvistatop Meadowscacade Meadowsvista MeadowsHeath

Meadows NOAA Forecast

Overnight NOAA Day 0
Partly Cloudy
Partly cloudy, with a low around 7. Wind chill values as low as -3. Northwest wind around 5 mph.
Friday NOAA Day 1
Chance Snow
A 50 percent chance of snow after 10am. Increasing clouds, with a high near 25. Wind chill values as low as -3. West wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Friday Night NOAA Day 2
Snow and Breezy
Snow. Temperature rising to around 25 by 3am. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Saturday NOAA Day 3
Snow Showers and Breezy
Snow showers. High near 26. Breezy, with a west wind 25 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Saturday Night NOAA Day 4
Snow Showers Likely and Breezy
Snow showers likely before 10pm, then a chance of snow after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Breezy, with a west wind 21 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Sunday NOAA Day 5
Snow and Breezy
Snow. High near 28. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.

Ski Bowl
Website - SnowPhone - Weather Station

skibowlresort
Weather: Night Snow
Temp: 11F - (11F @ Weather Station)
Wind: around 5 mph - (6 gusting to 14mph @ Weather Station)
Base: 30in - 49in
New Snow 24hr: 2in
New Snow 72hr: in

skibowl1 skibowl2 skibowl3

Ski Bowl NOAA Forecast

Overnight NOAA DAY 0
Partly Cloudy
Partly cloudy, with a low around 7. Wind chill values as low as -3. Northwest wind around 5 mph.
Friday NOAA DAY 1
Chance Snow
A 50 percent chance of snow after 10am. Increasing clouds, with a high near 25. Wind chill values as low as -3. West wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Friday Night NOAA DAY 2
Snow and Breezy
Snow. Temperature rising to around 25 by 3am. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Saturday NOAA DAY 3
Snow Showers and Breezy
Snow showers. High near 26. Breezy, with a west wind 25 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Saturday Night NOAA DAY 4
Snow Showers Likely and Breezy
Snow showers likely before 10pm, then a chance of snow after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Breezy, with a west wind 21 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Sunday NOAA DAY 5
Snow and Breezy
Snow. High near 28. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.


Other Information

Area Forecast Detail

Short Term: SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...Temperatures have started to
fall quickly in areas without clouds such as Kelso (26F), but haven`t
fallen much in areas with cloud cover such as PDX (34F). Expect
clouds to continue to thin out through the evening and temperatures
to drop quickly everywhere. No changes to current forecast low
temperatures. High clouds may arrive as early as sunrise tomorrow
which will limit warming in the lowlands. Considering the
considerable warming the impressive sun angle has brought the past
few days despite cloud cover, did not lower forecast high
temperatures for tomorrow, but it is possibly highs could top out 2
to 3 or more degrees cooler than currently forecast. If this does
happen, do not expect it to have a significant impacts. Primary
impact would probably be slightly higher accumulation on grassy
surfaces in the lowlands, but given the high sun angle, expect road
temperatures to be too warm in the evening for any accumulation on
road surfaces. Once road temperatures start cooling enough for
accumulation, the warm FRONT will likely arrive and end any chances
for low elevation snow below 1000 feet. Only other change was to
slighly lower snow levels for Monday morning and introduce a rain
snow mix down to the valley floor and to elevations above 500 feet
for the rest of the valley. 00Z NAM and 00Z GFS both show 850
temperatures approaching -7 to -8C between 06Z and 12Z. While
precipitation will be mostly tapered off by this time, there are some
hints of banding setting up as a pseudo ocean effect snow shower
pattern sets up Sunday night. This could lead to a few areas in the
lowlands seeing accumulating snow Monday morning which will need to
be watched. /Bentley

Previous Discussion Follows...The broad and cold upper level
TROUGH that brought us last night`s low-elevation snow event is now
centered over the interior Pac NW. We remain in cyclonic flow aloft
on the backside of the TROUGH, which is keeping some light snow
showers going across the mountains, along with a few flurries and
clouds over the interior lowlands as well. As the TROUGH axis
continues to push east tonight, we will see showers end and clouds
scatter out. The air mass overhead is quite cold, at -8 to
-10C, which combined with the clearing skies and light winds, should
result in some of our coldest overnight lows of the year so far.
Expect lows for the interior lowlands to drop into the low to mid
20s, with teens for the gorge and Hood River Valley and some outlying
valley locations. Any remaining snow or moisture on the roads by this
evening will likely refreeze overnight, so we are expecting some
slippery spots around for the Fri morning commute.

Fri will be fairly quiet for the first half of the day as a shortwave
ridge passes overhead. However, clouds will increase through the day
ahead of the next shortwave advancing toward the region from the NW.
A warm FRONT will begin to spread light precipitation onshore in the
afternoon, with precipitation intensity picking up in the evening.
There is concern that some of this initial precip will fall as snow
for portions of the interior lowlands. The fcst models are snowing
wet bulb zero heights below 1000 ft, which suggest that at least a
rain/snow mix is likely for the lowest elevations. However, there
will also be an increasing southerly gradient late Fri. This should
act to act to keep surface temps above freezing at the valley floor.
Think there is a chance that some of the higher terrain around the
lowlands sees some light accumulations, generally an inch or less and
for elevations above 500 ft. The best chance will likely be for the
northern half of the valley, where winds will be more southeasterly
and not quite as breezy as we are expecting through the
central and southern Willamette Valley. We have issued a Special
Weather Statement to highlight this threat. The warm FRONT
will move onshore later in the evening, with the southerly gradient
opening up further by around midnight. This should act to lift the
snow level to up around 1000 feet or above. Advisory level snowfall
accumulations are likely for the Cascades, the Cascade foothills, the
Coast Range, and Willapa Hills Fri night through Sat morning as the
upper level shortwave associated with this system drops through the
region and drives some good orographic flow. The lowlands should see
numerous showers overnight as well, but QPF totals will be much
lighter in the valley due to rain shadowing.

There will be a lull in the precipitation Sat afternoon and evening,
but plenty of clouds, as the upper level shortwave moves out of the
region. However, another system will follow quickly in its wake
overnight Sat and Sun. This system looks to have even more moisture
associate with it. If the current model trends hold, we will likely
see some of our heaviest mountain snow of the season Sun. Amounts in
the Cascades could exceed 2 feet through Sun night. Snow levels will
remain low, generally in the 1500 to 2500 ft range. So significant
accumulations in the Cascade foothills and Coast Range are possible
as well, with potential for over a foot in some of the higher
elevations. Precipitation will remain all rain for the interior
lowlands through Sun. Expect periodically gusty southerly winds
through the weekend, with the strongest winds likely Sat morning and
Sun morning. The surface gradient looks impressive during both time
periods, but the winds aloft are more westerly, so do not expect
winds to approach advisory thresholds. We could see some gusts
of 30 to 35 mph at times, however. Pyle

.

     

Long Term: ..Sunday night through Thursday...Fairly active pattern
expected will continue through the long range. GFS ensembles for 12Z
Mon indicate cold upper level troughing to remain over Southwest
Washington and Northwest Oregon. Operational runs of the GFS and
ECMWF in good agreement showing 500 mb north flow over the area,
with the upper TROUGH axis extending from NE Washington to extreme
NW California. The bulk of the DYNAMICS will have shifted to
Southwest and South Central Oregon by that time. Model 1000-500 mb
thickness values Sun night forecast to be near 520 dm amd 850 mb
temps still -6 to -8C. This translates to continued low snow levels.
Going with near the surface in the Central Columbia Gorge and Upper
Hood River Valley to around 500 ft in the North Willamette Valley
and Clark County in SW Washington. Snow levels to gradually rise the
south of the aforementioned areas rise to around 1000 ft.
Substantial snowfall is likely for the Cascades and foothills and
higher elevations of the Oregon Coast Range and also SW Washington
Willapa Hills through Mon morning.

North flow aloft continues Mon and will push the upper TROUGH axis
well to the south. A few of the GFS ensemble members want to close
off a 500 mb low near the Central California Coast Mon. Maintained
climo or slightly above climo POPS Mon due to the potential for weak
short-waves within the north flow aloft to migrate through the
forecast area. The ECMWF appears to be slightly faster with the next
short-wave Mon night and Tue. Over-running warm-frontal precip
expected to slide south into SW Washington and far NW Oregon
sometime Tue. GFS indicates slight moderation in 850 mb temps Tue,
but still around -5C. Snow levels Mon night and Tue hover in the 750
to 1500 ft range. Models then show another upper level TROUGH
carving out over the NE Pac Wed through Thu. Details differ, but the
general gist is for continued below normal daytime temperatures,
relatively low snow levels and unsettled conditions. This pattern
will bring additional snow to the Cascades, which will continue
the trend of building snowpack. Weishaar


Road Conditions

Resort Conditions:

Timberline: Plowed Roads - Winter driving conditions exist. Please drive carefully.
Meadows: N/A

Check Road Status - TripCheck.com

Road Cams:

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Long Lead

longlead1 longlead2

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EST THU FEB 15 2018

SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS

LA NINA CONDITIONS CONTINUED THROUGH JANUARY AND INTO EARLY FEBRUARY ACROSS THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN, AS INDICATED BY OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS.
THE CPC/IRI CONSENSUS ENSO FORECAST INDICATES THAT LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECAY RAPIDLY AND TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS DURING THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BOREAL SUMMER.

THE MARCH-APRIL-MAY (MAM) 2018 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, WITH
GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN SOME AREAS OF NEW MEXICO AND
TEXAS. LESS ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTEND UP THE
EAST COAST INTO THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO MOST LIKELY
FOR WESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA, INCLUDING THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, AS WELL AS
THE NORTH SLOPE, WITH SEA ICE SEASONALLY LOW IN THE BERING SEA AND DECREASED
SNOW LEVELS IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA. INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE, WHERE SNOW LEVELS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. INCREASED PROBABILITIES
FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING MAM ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

THE MAM 2018 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST, THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST, AND SOUTH TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
ALSO INDICATED FOR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST
LIKELY FROM CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AS WELL AS ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO FLORIDA.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOST LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
ALASKA, INCLUDING THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.

EQUAL CHANCES (EC) ARE FORECAST IN AREAS WHERE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES ARE
INDICATED FOR SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING

CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS

OCEANIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LA NINA CONDITIONS CONTINUED THROUGH JANUARY
INTO EARLY FEBRUARY, AS CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALIES ARE
NEGATIVE FROM THE DATE LINE TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. THE LATEST WEEKLY NINO
3.4 TEMPERATURE ANOMALY WAS -0.9 C. NEGATIVE SUB-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WEAKENED IN EARLY JANUARY
AND STRENGTHENED AGAIN IN LATE JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY, WITH ANOMALOUSLY
WARM WATER AT DEPTHS OF GREATER THAN 200 METERS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. THE
MOST RECENT THREE MONTH MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALY FOR THE NINO 3.4 REGION, FOR
NOVEMBER 2017 THROUGH JANUARY 2018, IS -1.0 C.

RECENT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN ARE ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA, WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE
LINE AND ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE MARITIME CONTINENT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AT
200-HPA ARE ANOMALOUSLY WESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) IS ACTIVE WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN PACIFIC. DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE ACTIVE PHASE OF THE MJO TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN IN THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS. THE ACTIVE MJO IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR NORTH AMERICA IN MARCH. THE
IMPACT OF MJO ON THE FORECAST DECREASES IN APRIL AND MAY WITH GREATER
UNCERTAINTY.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS

THE CPC SST-CONSOLIDATION FORECAST, WHICH INCLUDES THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG,
MARKOV, AND CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS STATISTICAL FORECASTS, ALONG WITH
THE CFS DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST, PREDICTS A TRANSITION FROM LA NINA TO
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IS LIKELY DURING SPRING 2018 WITH ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY FOR MAM 2018 AND SEASONS THAT FOLLOW. MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT THE NINO 3.4
SST ANOMALY TO BE BETWEEN -0.5 AND 0.5 C, INDICATING LIKELY ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS, BY APRIL 2018. THE NMME-MEAN NINO 3.4 TEMPERATURE ANOMALY IS
BETWEEN 0.0 C AND 0.5 C FROM JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2018. BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECASTS, THE OFFICIAL CPC/IRI ENSO CONSENSUS INDICATES
THAT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE MAM 2018 SEASON AND
THEREAFTER, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT THROUGH JJA 2018.

PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS

THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR MAM 2018 THROUGH JJA 2018 WERE
PRIMARILY BASED ON DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE NCEP CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME), AS
WELL AS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING A MODEL COMBINING REGRESSIONS OF
TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION ON THE CPC SST-CONSOLIDATION OF NINO3.4 FORECASTS
WITH DECADAL TRENDS. GUIDANCE FOR FMA 2018 THROUGH JAS 2018 WAS ALSO OBTAINED
FROM A STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL HYBRID MODEL THAT MERGES A STATISTICAL FORECAST OF
TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM NMME FORECASTS OF THE NINO 3.4 SST
ANOMALY WITH CALIBRATED NMME TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
THE LONGER-LEAD OUTLOOKS, FROM ASO 2018 THROUGH MAM 2019, WERE BASED ON DECADAL
TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION TRENDS, AS WELL AS THE CPC TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION OF STATISTICAL FORECASTS.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - MAM 2018 TO MAM 2019

TEMPERATURE

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING MAM 2018 ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S., NORTHWARD UP THE ATLANTIC COAST TO MAINE, AS WELL AS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA. PROBABILITIES ARE GREATEST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AS WELL AS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN REGIONS OF ALASKA, WHERE
POSITIVE DECADAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE LARGEST. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
MORE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AS
WELL AS SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THIS TEMPERATURE
PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH IMPACTS OF CURRENT LA NINA CONDITIONS. AN ACTIVE MJO
INCREASES THE PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS IN MARCH, AND INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE MARCH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK OVER A LARGE PART OF THE EAST, AS INCREASED
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MJO IMPACTS CONFLICT WITH
INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK.
AS A RESULT, PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MODERATED OVER THE
EAST IN THE MAM 2018 OUTLOOK.

THE AREA OF LIKELY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCREASES THROUGH THE SON 2018
OUTLOOK, FOLLOWING CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE NMME, LARGELY DUE
TO DECADAL TRENDS AND A DIMINISHED ROLE OF ENSO IMPACTS. PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED IN THE FEBRUARY SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
THROUGH SON 2018, RELATIVE TO THE JANUARY SEASONAL OUTLOOKS, FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
FROM THE CALIBRATED NMME FORECASTS AND FROM STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DECADAL
TRENDS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE NOW MOST LIKELY OVER A GREATER AREA OF
THE CENTRAL AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR JJA THROUGH ASO 2018. THE SEASONAL
OUTLOOKS FOR OND 2018 THROUGH MAM 2018 FOLLOW GUIDANCE FROM THE CPC
CONSOLIDATION, INDICATING AREAS OF LIKELY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LARGELY
DUE TO DECADAL TRENDS.

PRECIPITATION

THE MAM AND AMJ 2018 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS INDICATE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS MOST LIKELY FOR A LARGE PART OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS, INCLUDING CALIFORNIA,
THE GREAT BASIN, THE SOUTHWEST, AND THE GULF COAST. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST, INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AS WELL
AS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PERSISTENT IMPACTS OF LA NINA. INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEAST ARE SUPPORTED BY FORECASTS FROM
THE NMME AND CFS DYNAMICAL MODELS, AS WELL AS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BASED ON
DECADAL TRENDS. INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO
PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS FROM MJJ THROUGH JAS 2018, FOLLOWING CALIBRATED
NMME FORECASTS AND DECADAL TRENDS.

NMME FORECASTS OF INCREASING LIKELIHOOD AS THE SUMMER PROGRESSES OF EL NINO
CONDITIONS AND RELATED IMPACTS ARE PARTLY DISCOUNTED, DUE TO LOW SKILL IN BOTH
THE ENSO AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THE PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM MJJ THROUGH JAS 2018, SUPPORTED BY CALIBRATED NMME FORECAST
PROBABILITIES AND HYBRID STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL NMME FORECASTS. THE GREATER AREA
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS OF INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IN THE CALIBRATED NMME PROBABILITIES IS NOT SUPPORTED BY EITHER ENSO IMPACTS OR
DECADAL PRECIPITATION TRENDS. INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ASO 2018 ARE SUPPORTED BY DECADAL
PRECIPITATION TRENDS. THE PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
INCREASED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA FROM MAM THROUGH AMJ 2018, WHILE
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA FROM MAM 2018
THROUGH JJA 2018, AS INDICATED BY CALIBRATED PROBABILITY FORECASTS FROM THE
NMME, CONSISTENT WITH DECADAL TRENDS.

WITH NO CLEAR CLIMATE SIGNALS OR PRECIPITATION TRENDS, OUTLOOKS FOR SON 2018
THROUGH MAM 2019 INDICATE EQUAL CHANCES (EC), WHERE PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES.

FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS

THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.

FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM
L
(USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON MAR 15 2018


1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 19, 2011
FORECAST RELEASE.